Posts Tagged ‘Bear

03
Sep
10

Late Night Tradewinds

Like most who trade, I keep a different schedule than the usual 9-to-5’ers I see riding the subway or bus glumly at the end of the working day. I stay up and check my charts, run some more studies and see how the Nikkei is ticking along. Europe opens and I get a feel for the wave of buying or selling that will soon be crashing upon my native shores.

It is contemplative work. The charts may automatically draw themselves with a bit of help from diligent data entry, but in the end you are staring out into the trading abyss every day – peering out into the probabilistic chaos known as the ‘future’.

The future I see for the indexes isn’t good.

The final cracks in the market action are there, with those that have the proper instruments to see and record them. And all the while I bide my time until it is the right moment – flash in the order and let it all go. The currents will take hold and I’ll witness the waterfall as equities roar lower with thunderous rage.

We’re close – make no mistake. I fully expect some green before the tide turns. It will look good, and you’ll be tempted to setup a nice shack on the newly formed sandy beach of the bull move, maybe noodle around and get some fishing done. Don’t get too comfortable, your vacation spot is next to the falls – and I think I hear the creaking of barely secured pylons giving way under your holiday hut.

Reversal of fortune can indeed become the best of opportunities.

Good trading!

Trader Tim

19
Aug
10

Bearish Prognostications

Like the dieter that promises himself that he won’t eat all the pizza, (but does so anyway), I made myself a promise that I wouldn’t put a bunch of charts and technicals up here. Sure, it is a trading-oriented blog – but I find dissection of charts a bit dry after a while. If I wanted CHARTS, CHARTS, CHARTS all the time, I would probably visit chart.ly and be done with it.

Hell, if they were more like this – http://chart.ly/qhym5k I most certainly would!

But I have had this interminable itching in the back of my trading mind for a bit, seeing the large wedges forming on the Dow chart, the breakout to the downside and subsequent upwards retrace – and it gives me pause. Condensing daily ticks to physical output, I believe we’re in for another slapdown.

Heresy, I know – the FED is going to pump some massive amounts into Treasuries tomorrow and Friday. But the setup still exists. Here’s what I’m thinking. Dow gets inflated via the “FEDjection” into Friday, then sets up for a good fade into the rest of next week.

Not that I’m suggesting you take this as specific instructions to drop your beer and tv dinners, rush to the computer and place some orders – just that if you agree with me (after doing your own due diligence and financial homework), I think we’re setting up for a good smackdown.

There I said it – it will be google indexed and replicated in a few hours. I can’t go back now! (Not that I would, mind you.)

Here’s to next week! Bombs away!!!

Update: Looks like we’ve gotten a head start for thursday, as of this writing the dow is down 182.78 points! Heck of a slide going into option expiration.

Good Trading!

Trader Tim